Saturday, April 28, 2007

The Skies Are Dark

The skies are dark and gloomy here ... showers outside UniLodge@ANU . A sign that we should all stay in and study ?

But I'm bored . I need to go out . I wanna go to Ijok . To see the marvels of game theory at work there of course . Lets see . It is actually a huge box that contains numbers . It was interesting the first time I heard it from Dr Alan Martina in my ECHI 1006 course . Well , perhaps the Oxford boys will say I'm wrong but that doesnt matter , the basic idea is like this .

In column 1 row 2 , if BN throws mud at PKR , PKR still maintain their policy of keeping hands in their pockets , then PKR would seem so dirty that they lose some rating points . BN wins some . So BN now is rated 14 and PKR is rated 6 only . The same goes with column 2 row 1 . If BN keeps their hands in their pockets and PKR slams some mud into their face , BN will lose some rating points while PKR gets more .

As to the question why the summations in quadrant 2 and quadrant 3 are not equal to the summation in quadrant 1 , the figures are just made up and I assume an inefficiency loss when mud war occurs i.e. a minor group might view the mud war started by an individual party as immoral . Thus , a loss of one rating point ( 13 + 6 = 19 and less than 10 + 10 = 20 ) occur .

Now , lets take the case where BN throws mud but PKR keeps their hands in the pockets . BN gets a rating of 13 , PKR 6 . PKR will soon realise that the people sees them as a bunch of dirty politicians . So they must do something ! What will they do ? Given the condition that BN has started the mud war , PKR must respond by throwing mud back at BN too . The game now moves to column 2 , row 2 . This is where both parties throw mud at each other . The result ? A badly bruised ratings for both to share . 5 a piece . However , results may vary if one party has more mud in their face and if more people see them as immoral politicians . This might mean that column 2 row 2 has figures lesser than 5 .

So . You see . Calling each other names etc won't work . The marvels of game theory is at work . There are actually more complex situations . For those in ANU and reading my blog and you are interested in game theory mechanics , take up courses like ECON 1100 ( Microeconomics 1 Honours ) and ECON 2141 ( Strategic Thinking ) .

Now . In the case of IJOK , please guys . Take it easy ... it is an election ... not a war zone . It is to allow the people of IJOK to choose what is right for them , who can serve them best . Not who is dirtier ... and they choose the cleanest among the dirtiest . That is not the way an election should work .

Good day guys .

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